The Thesis

From $39 Trillion to Zero by 2069

A 10% National Sales Tax replaces every federal tax. Entitlements are bought out and sunset. America runs surpluses — and pays off the national debt.

Explore The Plan
The Choice: Two Paths for the National Debt
Status quo (CBO baseline)1 vs. the 10% NST plan, 2026–2069
Status quo: CBO, The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2026 to 2056 (March 2026), translated to gross federal debt. Plan: per Phase 1–2 model below. 2057–2069 extrapolated.

Assumptions & data sources

The Framework

Three Steps to Fiscal Responsibility

1

Overhaul the Tax Code

Replace all federal taxes with a single 10% National Sales Tax on consumer purchases (groceries exempt). One tax. One rate. No loopholes.

2

Cut Spending to Revenue

Cap total government outlays to match the revenue generated by the 10% National Sales Tax — approximately $1.8 trillion annually.6

3

Pay Off All Debts

Buy out the $27 trillion owed to every American who paid into Social Security and Medicare.5,4 Finance through surpluses, asset sales, and borrowing at 1% interest — then pay down all debt.

Implementation Roadmap

The 10-Year Plan

This plan has two distinct phases. In the first five years, we buy out every dollar that Americans contributed to Social Security and Medicare — a $27 trillion obligation5,4 financed through radical spending cuts, $4 trillion in asset sales, and temporary borrowing at 1% interest. Debt peaks at $61 trillion before surpluses take over. In Phase 2, with entitlements eliminated, permanent surpluses bend the debt curve downward. Debt-free by 2069.

Phase 1

Years 1–5: The Buyout

Buy out every dollar the government owes to Americans who paid into Social Security and Medicare — $27 trillion, paid over 4 years into individual IRAs and HSAs.

$27T
Entitlement buyout obligation5,4
$4T
Asset liquidation proceeds
1%
Refinanced interest rate
Phase 1 Cash Flow vs. Debt Trajectory
Where the money comes from and goes, Years 1–5
All figures from the schedule below; 1.0% refinanced interest assumed.
Show full Year-by-Year schedule
Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
10% NST Revenue$1.84T$1.90T$1.97T$2.04T$2.11T
Defense$0.70T$0.60T$0.50T$0.35T$1.03T
All Other Government$0.70T$0.50T$0.35T$0.20T$0.20T
Medicaid (sunset Year 1)$0.60T————
Operating Surplus-$0.16T$0.80T$1.12T$1.49T$0.87T
Interest Expense (1%)-$0.39T-$0.45T-$0.51T-$0.56T-$0.61T
Asset Liquidations+$1.00T+$1.00T+$1.00T+$1.00T—
Buyout Payments-$6.75T-$6.75T-$6.75T-$6.75T—
Net Cash Flow-$6.30T-$5.40T-$5.14T-$4.82T+$0.27T
Ending Debt$45.3T$50.7T$55.8T$60.7T$60.4T
  • Every worker receives a Personal Social Security Ledger — total contributions vs. benefits received
  • Net balances deposited into individual IRAs (Social Security) and HSAs (Medicare)
  • Priority: current retirees first, then closest to retirement
  • Social Security Administration, Medicare, and Medicaid fully sunset by end of Year 5
  • IRS eliminated — no income tax, no payroll tax, no corporate tax to enforce
  • Debt peaks at $60.7T in Year 4 — the deepest point of the "valley"
Why Debt Rises Before It Falls
Yes, debt rises temporarily to $61 trillion. This is intentional. The $27T buyout5,4 converts an unfunded, off-balance-sheet liability into transparent sovereign debt — and then we pay it off. The alternative is the status quo: trust fund depletion by 2034, automatic 21% benefit cuts,3 and $39 trillion in debt that never stops growing.2
Phase 2

Years 6–10: The Paydown

With entitlements eliminated, permanent operating surpluses bend the debt curve downward.

$0
Annual entitlement spending
$1.0T+
Annual operating surplus
$2.2T
Debt reduction from peak
Phase 2 Surplus & Debt Paydown
Operating surplus grows, debt bends down, Years 6–10
All figures from the schedule below; 1.0% refinanced interest assumed.
Show full Year-by-Year schedule
Year 6Year 7Year 8Year 9Year 10
10% NST Revenue$2.18T$2.26T$2.34T$2.42T$2.50T
Defense (3% GDP)$1.07T$1.11T$1.15T$1.19T$1.23T
All Other Government$0.20T$0.20T$0.20T$0.20T$0.20T
Operating Surplus$0.91T$0.95T$0.99T$1.03T$1.08T
Interest Expense (1%)-$0.60T-$0.60T-$0.60T-$0.59T-$0.59T
Net Debt Paydown$0.31T$0.35T$0.39T$0.44T$0.49T
Ending Debt$60.1T$59.7T$59.3T$58.9T$58.4T
  • No Social Security. No Medicare. No income tax. No corporate tax. No IRS.
  • Defense permanently funded at 3% of GDP
  • All other government runs on $200B/year
  • Every dollar of surplus goes to principal reduction
  • Debt reduced $2.2T from peak by Year 10 — curve bending decisively
Long-Term Trajectory

The Path to Debt-Free

  • Year 10 (2036) Debt at $58.4T — curve bending ✓
  • Year 20 (2046) Debt at $50.5T — below today's level ✓
  • Year 30 (2056) Debt at $35.0T — half of peak ✓
  • Year 40 (2066) Debt at $8.6T — nearly there ✓
  • Year 43 (2069) DEBT FREE ✓

After Year 10, consider reducing the NST from 10% to 7%. After Year 30, to 5%. At 5%, estimated annual revenue of ~$2.5T (by then) funds defense, essential services, and continued debt paydown. The goal: a debt-free nation by 2069, funded by the simplest tax system in the developed world.

Why 1% Interest Is Achievable
The plan depends on refinancing all national debt at 1%. Japan has held its policy rate at or below 1% throughout 25+ years and through current normalization (0.75%, May 2026)8 at debt-to-GDP exceeding 200%. The U.S. at a 150% peak is less leveraged, and constitutionally-capped spending makes U.S. Treasuries the safest sovereign asset in the world.9
The plan's break-even rate is approximately 1.85%. Above that, debt grows mechanically regardless of operating surplus. At today's average Treasury rate of 3.4%,7 the plan as designed does not converge — adaptive measures are required.
Read the full case, including the strongest objections →
The Plan

Reforming Government at Every Level

🏛️

Federal Tax Reform

Replace income tax, payroll tax, excise tax, and corporate tax with a single 10% National Sales Tax.

Read proposal
📊

Federal Spending

Create a balanced budget with clear allocations: defense, debt repayment, and sunset of Social Security and Medicare.

Read proposal
⚖️

Non-Financial Reforms

Term limits, Federal Reserve elimination, U.S. Mint modernization, and agency consolidation.

Read proposal
🏗️

Privatization

Sell National Parks, USPS, BLM land, lending programs, and restructure education and military bases.

Read proposal

Sources & Footnotes

  1. Congressional Budget Office, The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2026 to 2056 (March 2026). cbo.gov/publication/61882. See trajectory chart assumptions for the gross-debt translation methodology. ↩
  2. U.S. Department of the Treasury, Debt to the Penny, Fiscal Data, March 2026 (~$39 trillion gross federal debt). fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/debt-to-the-penny. ↩
  3. Social Security and Medicare Boards of Trustees, 2025 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal OASI and DI Trust Funds. Combined OASI/DI trust funds projected depleted in 2034, after which scheduled benefits would be reduced ~21% under current law. ssa.gov/oact/TR/2025. ↩
  4. 2025 Annual Report of the Boards of Trustees of the Federal Hospital Insurance and Federal Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Funds. Cumulative Medicare contributions and unfunded obligations component of the $27T entitlement buyout figure. cms.gov/oact/tr. ↩
  5. Social Security Administration, Annual Statistical Supplement, Table 4.A3 (cumulative income and benefits paid); Congressional Research Service summary: ~$29.2T cumulative SS income, ~$26.5T paid through 2024. Net unrecovered contributions form the Social Security component of the $27T buyout. ssa.gov/policy/docs/statcomps/supplement. ↩
  6. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures, Q4 2025 SAAR per BEA Q4 2025 release: ~$20.4T. Excluding off-premises food consumption (~$1.4T, BEA Table 2.4.5U), taxable base ≈ $19T. At 10% NST: $1.9T. The Phase 1 schedule uses $1.84T (Year 1) for conservative anchoring. bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index. ↩
  7. U.S. Department of the Treasury, Average Interest Rates on U.S. Treasury Securities, monthly series, March 2026 (weighted average ~3.4%). fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/average-interest-rates-treasury-securities. ↩
  8. International Monetary Fund, Fiscal Monitor (Japan general government gross debt > 250% of GDP); Bank of Japan policy rate history (near-zero policy rate since the late 1990s, with ZIRP / NIRP regimes for most of the period). imf.org/en/Publications/FM. ↩
  9. International Monetary Fund, Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER), Q4 2025: U.S. dollar share of allocated reserves at 56.77%, the largest of any single currency. (Starting Q3 2025, IMF eliminated the "unallocated" portion with restated history back to 2000; current series allocates 100% of reserves.) data.imf.org/en/datasets/IMF.STA:COFER. ↩
About the Author
Chris Crossett — 25-year accounting and finance professional, MBA. FP&A, ERP implementation (SAP, NetSuite). Fiscal conservative focused on balanced budgets at every level of government. The proposals on this site come from someone who has spent a career making numbers reconcile.

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